|Fig 1: Bakken growth, see Fig. 3 for historical|
|Fig 2: Average decline rate|
There has been continuous extraction on the Bakken going back 50+ years to 1953. But only with the recent boom, with hydraulic fracturing techniques, are we seeing the explosion in number of wells. The prior wells were all in serious decline I believe.
This is my plea: What we need from the Dept. of Mineral Resources of NoDak.gov is a complete set of data from every well, not the rolled up info. Even with the rolled up info, you can do some decent analysis, but why not get everything?
|Fig 3 : Historical Bakken growth, first well to the left was in 1953.|
For an exponential and hyperbolic decline analysis on this per county data set and note they are fairly similar in decline.
- McKenzie has a half-life of 0.75 years
- Williams is 1.2 years
- Mountrail is 2.3 years
- Dunn is 18.5 years
|Summary of Bakken
Info Since 1/1/2007
|BOPD||Wells||Recovery||Rec/Well||Well Age||Curr Ave|
Here is a link to an Wolfram Alpha solver for exponential decline, the numbers are taken from the table above for Williams county. (The number 30 is the average days in a month, as the calculation assumes a daily production rate)
|Fig. 4 : Wolfram Alpha algorithm for predicting decline rate from Rec/Well=64725, WellAge=10,CurrAveBOPD=147.3|
For hyperbolic decline, example using McKenzie, rates are in per day.